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Red => Not a mole act
Orange=> A neutral act
Green => A mole act


I always watch the mole with this theory in my mind:

"The Mole knows all.
The Mole knows everything of all missions, locations, contestants and voting. This way he/she can prepare his/her actions in advance."

With this in mind I try to figure out what's the best, and easiest way(s), to sabotage a mission.

Mission 1: The waterfall.
The mole doesn't want this money. It's a personal mission, so there is no way he/she wants to succeed. The big question is if the mole knows if he/she is jumping for real money? (How lucky that Marcie is out!).
Because of my theory I think the mole knows. Maybe by a subtle hint from the crew. Or it's just told because all other are on the other end of the rope!
This said he/she that earns money can't be the mole: Mark and Clay.

The cool way to sabotage is to get the bag, knowing it isn't worth a dime. This makes Kristen, Bobby, Liz and Nicole slightly favorable. Pauls jump was also a pretty cool mole act. If he knew his bag was for real, than jumping and missing by an inch is a smart mole tactic. This also is true for Craig. He touches but does not catch the bag. The rest Alex, Ali and Victoria do not get the bag, but are far off with the catch. So for me that's not as molish as Paul and Craig. So their names are orange for this mission.
But this was entirely in the hands of Marcie. So this paragraph is all speculation.

Mission 2: Crusoe
The mole can sabotage from almost every task he got. The task was in the hands of the whiner: Nicole.

The Scavenger mole would just hide-beyond-sight 1 or 2 of the 5 winning objects. Because 2 objects were missing (cettle and tobacco) this could have happened. A mole point for Alex, Bobby, Clay, Craig and Victoria.
An other more obvious tactic would be to bring wrong objects to the appraisers. Loosing valuable time. This happened. Craig even brought the "Mole"-board!
Third tactic would be to go slow. Like Bobby and Craig did.
Fourth tactic would be to go fast, bring a lot to the appraisers, but not one-of-the-five winning objects. This would my tactic. It adds no money, but it also raises no suspicion. (Combined with tactic 1 it's a killer)

This is a recap of the objects found:
It's Marcie who finds the goat and bible. So she is not the mole (duh!).

Victoria finds a jar and bottle.
Clay brings a hat.
Alex brings a hairdryer. But that object lies between the rocks. The cettle is hidden in the rocks too!!!
Bobby and Craig are only seen with the mole message.
The person bringing the musquet is not shown.
They find 28 of the 45 objects.



The Timekeeping mole would loose time. Get tired fast. Run fast with little sand.
I have seen two timers (Ali and Paul) who seem to really try to fill it with sand. Proof of this is that a lot of objects were found, and the appraisers had enough time to use all three attempts at the solution. Still why is Paul so tired, while Ali appears not to be? Is that fake? Or has he overrun himself on those stairs? Still I think they both tried genuinly, and so Ali and Paul are unlikely Moles because of this mission.

The appraising mole. This mole knows the correct 5 objects to win the game. The easiest way to sabotage is to manipulate the other two in making the wrong decisions. We've seen wrong decisions indeed. Blue jeans, a camera and a pistol were presented as the solution. Based on this evidence Kristen, Liz and Mark are molish. Mark, as an history teacher, even more than the other two.
BUT all three-of-five winning object from the available objects were presented in the end! So basically with that in mind the appraising mole didn't sabotage at all!
(That's why they are in orange)

Notes:
Liz wants the vintrola on the table.
Liz is reading the bible as time is running out.
Mark is 'in charge'. He takes the correct two wrong items off the table from the second attempt. He leaves the Musquet, the bible and the goat.

The Whining mole could appoint the 'wrong' persons for the tasks. Best chance is to assign the 'right' (from mole perspective) persons for the time. Liz and Craig would be ideal for that. Because Nicole chose able and willing Paul and Ali as timekeepers she doesn't show signs of the mole.
Furthermore the whiner position is after the assignments completely outside of the game. She has no influence on the outcome, and the money. That's not a mole position.

Conclusion:

High Mole Potential: Alex, Bobby, Craig and Victoria

Medium Mole Potential: Kristen, Liz, Paul and Ali

Low Mole Potential: Mark, Clay and Nicole

PS. Hi vieffan!

Granted, the mole sometimes makes some money. Too blend in as it were.
However, in my analysis I disregard that possibility (without forgetting it). Overal the Mole will sabotage. He will surface after analysing 4-5 episodes this way.

Nevertheless, please stay sceptical. There is never enough logic around.

Neeroo wrote:

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Some comments on DikkeControleur's tracking....

Your fundamental theory has a flaw. The mole doesn't 'know all'. They might get some hints, and on occasion even, a generous amount of info. But at times they don't get a lot and have to improvise. So I would use different logic when analyzing the Waterfall task. You can't say anyone that got a bag that was full of counterfeit is mole-ish. It's likely the mole wouldn't even know which bags had money. After all, none-mole Marcie selected them, and giving a visual or other clue is risky. Mole-ish behavior would be missing an easy bag while making it seem like you tried your best.

Not to say that the Mole doesn't get some guidance, and we can watch for that.

To me, a better theory is 'the Editors know all' cause that is actually true. We can watch for scenes and how they are edited. This should yield good clues about what they want us to see and what they don't.

I've talked to 3 Dutch moles, and the producers of the Dutch mole series. From that it became clear that the mole knows all. At least what is going to happen upfront (all missions, locations, other players profiles, exceptions to be earned etc). The mole has a strategy prepared for the whole series/missions when he/she gets into that plane. This way he/she can focus on playing 'natural' and hidden, without thinking about what and how to sabotage.
The speculation about the all-knowing mole starts about if the mole knows stuff during the missions. Like information if the bag does or does not contain money. That's information that is only available at that moment in time. In the Dutch series it has been proven that the mole sometimes get this kind of information just in time from the crew.
Still, my main focus will be to analyse the missions with in mind what I would do if I was the mole. And if I knew what the missions were all about.

After one show it's impossible to know anything for sure. However after 4-5 shows this way of analysis will give rise to very probable mole-candidates.
An other plus of this tactic is that I keep an open mind, avoiding tunnelvision. Tunnelvision is such a killer!
And I like to read any additions other viewers have. Other eyes see other things. I expect to have very usefull discussions with all off you.
The trick is to seperate fact from speculation as good as we can.

PS. With this approach I have a track record of 3 out of 4 moles identified after ~4 shows. The mole I missed just didn't fit the profile. The players sabotaged more than the mole did.
PS.PS. 'The Editors know all'-theory is a valid one. The problem with that is that it's very speculative. The only facts are what they allow us to see (the show). The rest is speculation (Like thinking Craig kicks sand to hide the tobaccobox, which could be true. The first part is a fact (kicking sand), the second part is not).
Result is that this theory can point to all players.