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Watching the introductory videos....

Ali - jumps off the screen, seems real
Craig - genuine, had a weird green face flash at end of video (??)
Nicole - sincere
Mark - normal
Paul - questionable... added words that didn't need adding, seemed to be double-thinking his answers
Liz - seemed to be shifty in her video (or perhaps just overly 'hammy')
Kristen - seemed candid, but her video has a flash at the end that says 'the Mole was here'

Clay, Bobby, Alex, Marcie, Victoria - no red flags

At first I was thinking Paul = winner, Liz = mole,
Craig = long shot based on the green flashing face (green means good in 'The Mole' right?)

But then it occured to me that we don't know for sure whether intro videos were shot before, after, or during the game... which could explain some of the impressions I picked up off Liz & Paul.

SO....

Paul = mole
Liz = winner

and I hope that flashing face clue on Craig was just a 'green herring'