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S16 Episode 13 - Solving Riddles

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Trixiego		#81	[-]
Posts: 14350 (05/06/08 9:09 AM) Kiss me, I'm Adminish More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	chad6 wrote: tullfan2 wrote: I've worked out a scenario which is ingenious, if it happens. 1. In one of the vidcaps, it looks like Natalie's bag is behind her when they are all in a line before the IC. I'll assume that Natalie is exiled and finds the HII. 2. Erik wins the IC as expected. 3. Natalie/Cirie tell Erik that they intend to vote for Amanda. 4. Amanda guilt trips Erik (eg. "I helped you make it to the merger...") into agreeing to give her the Immunity Necklace in exchange for a Final 3 agreement with her and Parvati. 5. Natalie pretends to not have found the HII. 6. At TC, Erik fulfills his promise and gives Amanda the Immunity necklace 7. Parvati/Amanda/Cirie/Erik all vote for Natalie 8. Natalie plays the HII and votes for Erik 9. All of the votes for Natalie are void and Erik is voted out without anyone (other than perhaps Natalie) openly betraying him. Of course, all of the women are clued in on this ruse. But couldn't Natalie just vote Parv or Cirie out. Would they risk that? Does the red bag belong to someone though (assumingly Parvati) If that is the case, Parv or Natalie could have gone to EI. This is obviously IC b/c the immunity necklace is hanging there and they are ready to start because they are wearing their colors for the challenge; little wondering as to why Nat and Parv have "bags" next to them if they are listening for instructions to go and start because this other picture (see below) When was this taken? Cause Erik's bag?? is behind him (is that his bag?) and these show the lanes; in the earlier picture the only difference in clothing is that they got their colors selected b/c they are wearing them. So if that is the case and this is before the IC starts (and I assume after Erik gives back the IN) when they first arrive, is that Erik's bag behind him and did he go to EI? Or is that not a bag and why isn't Natalie and Parv's red bag? next to them Oh and not that it matters but what's in Parv's hand anyway
birdlady		#82	[-]
Posts: 1260 (05/06/08 9:25 AM) Registered user More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Amanda had a red bag when she got back from exile last week (in the hug picture at the challenge). Which doesn't mean they aren't swapping out bags... Looks to me like Parvati has a coconut (with the top chopped off for drinking). In which case, why didn't she bring enough for everyone? Or did she just get back from exile, and someone else brought her something to eat? (Although, I'm feeling uncertain that anyone was exiled prior to this challenge.) She may have it here, also, and it may be sitting in the open red bag in the receiving-instructions photo.
Trixiego		#83	[-]
Posts: 14352 (05/06/08 9:54 AM) Kiss me, I'm Adminish More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Yeah if that is the case and this is RC/IC anyway then the bags that are brought won't indicate who was exiled since nobody was exiled yet. I'm also not quite convinced yet that the HII is even found. The only thing I have read is that the idol "comes into play" again and I think that Jeff used similar statements when talking about the Ozzy and Jason boot episodes. So someone could conceivably say they found the HII and didn't find it and solely just the idea that the HII was found is being used here; technically speaking the HII then would come into play by the very notion that someone may believe it is found and will be played. I would have to give the edge to Erik to win this - isn't he like a record setting runner? Grant it, he could completely screw up the puzzle and someone else could catch up to him at the end. At this point, I would hedge on Amanda or Erik being possible winners. You know if Erik won, I could see him YM'ing himself to EI because he is scared to death that he may get booted. I wonder if Erik makes them believe he found the HII (even if he doesn't) and then the ladies (or some of them) thinking he HAS the HII develop this plan to bamboozle him Parvati mentioned in her conversation with Nat and Cirie (Amanda may be there but standing behind Cirie, dunno) that Jason was stupid enough to fall for something and that something was on the pretense that they believed he had the HII. If they think he has it because he alluded that he did have......... (continue my circle jerk) I gotta say that I am still questioning if Erik even goes; what would be very funny is if the ladies devise this plan based on their belief of something and little do they know Erik is really bamboozling them and one of the ladies (Natalie) end up leaving
tullfan2		#84	[-]
Posts: 2635 (05/06/08 4:58 PM) Registered User More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	In 16 seasons, I can't recall that there has ever been a combined Individual RC/IC. They don't always show both challenges in the promos. The Final 6 RC in Cook Islands, which was a replay of the Borneo mud gathering challenge, was not shown in any of the promos for that episode.
birdlady		#85	[-]
Posts: 1262 (05/06/08 6:07 PM) Registered user More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	There was a shot of Becky with her hair down, laying in the mud. But yeah, it seems hard to believe they could fill the time without a reward challenge. I'm mostly being swayed right now by the captioning on the press photos, but that's not a super high confidence source, and I'm becoming more and more attached to Parvati's coconut. I've also gotten more curious about the red bag. Here it is last week, with the dull-colored carpetbag looking things everyone else has. In the hug, Amanda has her dull-colored bag on her shoulder, and the red one in her hand. Have we seen it before? Did someone bring it home from a reward? Is it possible that this is the exile supply bag? They usually get like a machete, a flint, and a pot, I think. Or that the remaining players have made up an exile supply kit? You get to take with you whatever you have stuffed in your bag(s)? No red bag in episode 10:
Panama Jill		#86	[-]
Posts: 1 (05/06/08 6:39 PM) More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I don't think it's a bag. It looks like one of the giant red bath towels that Malakal got when they won the shower reward. Ozzy using one as a blanket?
tvfunspotter		#87	[-]
Posts: 19 (05/07/08 1:33 AM) More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	It is definitely a towel from the reward challenge that the old Malakal won - the one where they are showered topless. Cirie is wrapped in one in the 'insider clip' where they got their letter from home: And then when Amanda comes back from Exile Island and learns James is gone you can see she has a red towel with her too: I also remember in the first Ponderosa video Eliza mentioned that Cirie pulled her towel (that they won on their reward) from under her and she was annoyed about it.
ModestyBlaiser		#88	[-]
Posts: 78 (05/07/08 1:58 AM) More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Someone mentioned this pic at Survivor Phoenix but for the life of me I can't find the post now. Sorry to whoever it was but I thought I'd post the pic of the Torch snuffing from the 10 second promo: Shorter than Jeff but only slightly. Seems to be wearing a buff on their head. I looked at some other snuffings and the angle is similar. We ae looking at someone about the size of Ami. Bit smaller than Ozzy I'd guess. Therefore not Amanda or Erik. Natalie is the tallest of the other girls. I reckon it's not short enough to be Cirie or Parv.... so my money is on Natalie - I think! Given my predisposition to being wrong just about every guess I make, however, it's probably safe to say it will be some one who isn't Natalie. Okay just editing to add.. Natalie has had a buff on her head at the last two tribal councils. Also interesting to note that this theory is consistent with the Ozzy boot - he was shown in the promo saying how the stupidest move in survivor history was just played out. In these promos we see Natalie saying something very similar. Last Edited By: ModestyBlaiser 05/07/08 2:04 AM. Edited 1 times.
rnd4me		#89	[-]
Posts: 185 (05/07/08 2:31 AM) Registered user More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	In the pictures above the contestants are obviously facing in opposite directions for the photo shots. Note the yellow table to the side. They have each brought bags with them (some placed in front of them and some in back of them) and the immunity idle is hanging to the back in one picture. This looks like an immunity challenge with the threat that one person will be sent to exile island to be included in the comp. The red towel has been brought here by the group for the exiled person, whom ever that may turn out to be. As far as the fishy HII and how Jeff has described the biggest screw-up yet. Me thinks that the producers are screwing with the cast again to make ratings. They did it in the first couple of Survivor series (law suits ensued). Perhaps they saw a great opportunity to hint to someone where Ozzy left his HII and urge the ladies to use it in a way that will create "the new biggest screw-up eve in Survivor history". For ratings of course.
Trixiego		#90	[-]
Posts: 14355 (05/07/08 5:04 AM) Kiss me, I'm Adminish More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I think I am going to go against the grain this week and think that whatever happens is a backfire - it would just seem very ironic for the ladies to make a plan believing that Erik would fall for it and he ends up zooming them somehow and Natalie ends up going.
jonsmom98		#91	[-]
Posts: 84 (05/07/08 5:15 AM) More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	So looking at the pix above, instead of it being one of the buffs, could it be a hat instead? (Worn correctly?) Parv is always wearing the hat that way, where as Amanda wears it backwards. Just throwing out another option.
birdlady		#92	[-]
Posts: 1263 (05/07/08 7:45 AM) Registered user More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I think it's real unlikely that the snuffing in the promo is the real snuffing for this episode. I think the editing would support Natalie going this week. Her crazy visibility explosion had a tinge of too smart for her own good. But Erik has been thoroughly shown as naive/gullible/ready to try anything once. And I kinda think Probst wouldn't be able to refrain from mentioning comeuppance in his preview.
GlobalCroc		#93	[-]
Posts: 448 (05/07/08 8:12 AM) aka crocophile MESS Moderator More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I'd tend to agree this isn't the actual snuffing.
dettigersnw22		#94	[-]
Posts: 62 (05/07/08 8:34 AM) More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	That snuffing pic looks like it could actually be Jason. And it would make a lot more sense as a stupid move if Natalie were to find the old idol, win immunity, and then give her necklace away to Erik because she wants Amanda to go and doesnt think she's in danger.....only to then play the idol and get owned. I really dont see Erik winning the immunity challenge and then giving it up to try and use an idol as a blindside. It would just be too suspicious for him to win the necklace and give it up. And most of the scenarios that have been thought of that involve Erik and a fake/dead idol seem to be doable without Erik giving up immunity in the first place. They've really built us up to think that Erik is 1.) Going home and/or 2.) Gonna do something really stupid. How is Tribal Council supposed to shock us if they basically allude to what happens in the promo, and the boot is the person that everyone would expect to be sent home anyway?
ModestyBlaiser		#95	[-]
Posts: 80 (05/07/08 9:02 AM) More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	I thought that too dettigersnw, but I rechecked the Jason boot and Probst is wearing a different shirt. It's pale blue and has no buttonholes in the lapels lol (and no overstitching on the pockets). It's late and I'm bored. There's only one rear shot of Jason getting snuffed and that's not it. PLus Jason looks taller than the person being snuffed in the above pic when considered from the same angle. We're looking at a small person here because Jason isn't exactly big. (I also fully acknowledge that this could be a fake snuffing but am playing along because I love doing this stuff.)
Trixiego		#96	[-]
Posts: 14358 (05/07/08 9:05 AM) Kiss me, I'm Adminish More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	^^^^^ exactly (post above modesty) I am going to lose points for Fantasy but I think whatever "plan" occurs, it is going to backfire for some reason and Natalie gets taken out. They have really put a fire under her edit and they are doing massive overkill with Erik being the last man standing plus all the rigormole about the women to the end. Seems to me the best way to have a shocking TC is like what was said, someone goes home that isn't supposed to. If Erik wins immunity, I cannot for the life of me believe he would give it up in any respect. The conversation that happens with Erik, Parv and Cirie has the IN sitting there so if the three of them are having a talk about going to the end, and it is obvious that P/C never planned that, they are worried - why plan a ruse if Erik isn't safe; you vote off Erik. If Erik is telling P/C to go to end with him, then his targets would either be A or N but you would think if Amanda isn't safe, then Natalie shouldn't have that much to worry about from Erik b/c Erik would probably vote out Amanda over Natalie. If Amanda won immunity, the only way Erik is safe is if he has the HII or people think he does and maybe C/P are talking to Erik because THEY are worried Erik and Natalie would vote of them off and they don't want to risk that so they are bargaining with Erik to try and get rid of Natalie and Natalie is pissed but a plan is also engineered by the women to make Erik think this but get rid of him and have him lose the HII somehow. (which again, I can buy Jason being an idiot like that but Erik - not so sure on that) Unless Erik does give his HII to Natalie b/c Natalie, Erik and Amanda are voting out either Cirie or Parv or so Erik thinks but Erik is told the votes are going to Natalie - again though I guess I am having trouble thinking anyone would be that stupid ESPECIALLY after witnessing with their own eyes how people got completely suckered over the last few weeks. Dunno but I'm going with Natalie leaving
ModestyBlaiser		#97	[-]
Posts: 81 (05/07/08 9:09 AM) More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	AAARGH!! Hold the phone. I've just found the exact screencap but can't figure out how to extract it. That is the Alexis boot from last episode. This is a confirmed fake snuffing now in my mind. If I figure out how to take a screencap in media player I will post the darn thing. What a ruse. Oh here you go... fortunately for my technologically ill equipped brain SP has already done it.. Could have saved myself a lot of time. Last Edited By: ModestyBlaiser 05/07/08 9:18 AM. Edited 1 times.
dettigersnw22		#98	[-]
Posts: 63 (05/07/08 9:26 AM) More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	ModestyBlaiser wrote: AAARGH!! Hold the phone. I've just found the exact screencap but can't figure out how to extract it. That is the Alexis boot from last episode. This is a confirmed fake snuffing now in my mind. If I figure out how to take a screencap in media player I will post the darn thing. What a ruse. Oh here you go... fortunately for my technologically ill equipped brain SP has already done it.. Could have saved myself a lot of time. Ah. Nice catch. Definitely would seem pretty dumb of CBS to release a picture/scene of a snuffing that hasnt occurred yet, especially with the difference is size and shape of several of the remaining castaways.
ModestyBlaiser		#99	[-]
Posts: 82 (05/07/08 9:33 AM) More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Trixiego wrote: Unless Erik does give his HII to Natalie b/c Natalie, Erik and Amanda are voting out either Cirie or Parv or so Erik thinks but Erik is told the votes are going to Natalie - again though I guess I am having trouble thinking anyone would be that stupid ESPECIALLY after witnessing with their own eyes how people got completely suckered over the last few weeks. Dunno but I'm going with Natalie leaving Yeah what the hell... I'll stick with my first instinct too. We still have the lead up being very similar to that of Ozzy's boot. Extreme hubris and arrogance from Natalie (worse than Ozzy's in my opinion). They want us to be happy about the big blunder. I think Erik is a sympathetic character. He's always outside the alliance and struggling to hang on. They want us to enjoy the blunder - what better way than to put in all the nasty editing that Catwoman has been getting recently.
Trixiego		#100	[-]
Posts: 14360 (05/07/08 10:34 AM) Kiss me, I'm Adminish More Recent Posts Message Connection Block Invite	Plus I am figuring that it would fit perfectly for Erik to say the title If It Smells Like a Rat, Give It Cheese. Normally Erik would be the last person that I would think could say something like that (seems like such a Cirie or Natalie statement) but who knows maybe Erik smells a rat here and gives it "cheese" I'm aching for something fantastic

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S16 Episode 13 - Solving Riddles