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Why would he have to give up immunity to do that?

kenc333 wrote:

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Maybe in the F5, they see two distinct pairs: Natalie/Erik and Parvati/Amanda, with Cirie as the swing vote. Underneath all of that, the women have conspired to get rid of Erik next anyways. So when Erik wins immunity, Cirie tells Natalie/Erik that she's uneasy about the vote and thinks that the two pairs will pick off the swing vote (a la Christy, Dolly, Big Tom, etc.) Erik then realizes that Cirie is his only hope of getting to the final 3 without going on an immunity streak, so he offers Cirie immunity in exchange for her vote at tribal council. (Either Cirie asks for it, or he offers it to her.) Then, either Cirie backstabs Erik and he's voted out 3-2 (faves over fans), or 4-1 (if Natalie votes Erik too), or 3-2 (if Cirie keeps her word, but Natalie betrays Erik.) Either way, Erik is gone, but the more complicated part of the move is the scheming of the women's alliance to get it to all work out.

My only problem with that setup is that Erik is already on an immunity streak (especially if he wins this next one), so why would he feel like he couldnt win a 4th if he had to? If Erik has immunity, then he should put himself in the swing vote position and either go one of two ways:

1. Get a combination of Cirie/Natalie, Natalie/Parvati, Parvati/Cirie to vote with him against the other...and keep Amanda. This way if Erik doesnt win immunity next time (and definitely if Amanda doesnt win the F4 immunity either, which would be the real risk here) he at least has a strategic move available to try and convince the remaining players that Amanda is a huge threat to win based on her standings with the jury.

2. Vote out Amanda, but only agree to do this if two and only two of the other girls promises him F3......and then make another power move by announcing this in front of the jury, so they'll know good and well if Erik was lied to if he ends up going home in 4th. By doing that, he'll put the pressure on the two girls he allies himself with to stick to their word to look good in front of the jury, and he looks like he is an aggressive strategist with enough balls to take control of the game when he's able to.
I think that if Erik does something dumb here to cost himself the game, that its probably not giving up immunity. He doesnt come off as super brilliant, but he seems to have a good enough sense to not put himself at risk. He had immunity last time and wouldnt even help Amanda, so the guy has definitely played the game in his own best interests to this point. I think a dumb move on his part would be if he were to lose immunity, and then get put in a swing vote position..but then get caught wavering back and forth and all 4 girls decide to take him out rather than risk him deciding the direction of the game for them.