In regard to Cirie, I'm very confident at this point that she doesn't make the Final 3. I also increasingly believe that she probably doesn't have
the votes to win even if she got there. Here's a few quick reasons why I think she doesn't make Final 3:
1. Assuming that the Final 5 is Parvati/Amanda/Cirie/Alexis/Catalie, then the only Final 5 boots that would make any sense would be Cirie and Alexis. Cirie is clearly at a disadvantage right off the bat in this scenario, for 2 reasons: Alexis has 2 strong allies (Catalie and Parvati) and Cirie has only 1 at best (Amanda), and Alexis is also more likely to win immunity. If Alexis wins immunity, then Cirie is almost definitely screwed. And even if Alexis doesn't win immunity, the only way for Cirie to stay is for Cirie and Amanda to convince Parvati to vote for Alexis over Cirie, but I don't see that happening. I think Parvati has every intention of vote out Cirie before Alexis, and Cirie and Amanda simply won't have the votes to stop her.
2. Probst's pre-showing hyping of Alexis seems to suggest she makes the finals, which further suggests that Cirie is probably voted out at Final 5.
3. Parvati and Alexis are notably absent from Cirie's MySpace friends, which supports the idea that they vote her out.
4. Even if Cirie manages to get Alexis voted out at Final 5, she's still probably the next person to go. Presumably at this point she would either target Catalie or Parvati. It would be hard to convince Parvati and Amanda that Catalie is a bigger jury vote threat than she is, and Parvati seems to almost definitely make it to Final 3, so it's once again very difficult to see how Cirie survives, particularly considering how seemingly unlikely it would be for her to win immunity.
5. In one of her post show interviews, Ami implies that the decision to vote her out over Erik works out fine for Amanda, but may turn out to be a mistake for Ozzy and Cirie. This does not seem to bode well for Cirie.
6. Similarly, in one of Eliza's post show interviews, she implies that Cirie had regrets about not attempting to vote out Ozzy instead of Eliza at Final 10. If she made the Finals, she probably wouldn't regret anything, so again this doesn't seem to bode well for Cirie.
7. Then there's the whole issue of the rumors that there may be a Final 2 this season. I don't really believe that this happens, but it would make it even more difficult for Cirie to win. Now she would not only have to survive the Final 5 vote and the Final 4 vote, but a Final 3 vote as well. And the likelihood of her either winning immunity or being taken to Final 2 by Parvati or Amanda seems incredibly small.
And then, after all of that, there's the problem of the jury vote. As I said, even if Cirie somehow made it to the Finals, it seems like it would be very difficult for her to get enough votes to win. Here's how I think the voting would go in 4 possible Cirie-in-the-Finals scenarios:
Cirie vs. Parvati vs. Amanda
Catalie - Parvati
Alexis - Parvati
Ozzy - Amanda?
Erik - Cirie?
James - Parvati?
Jason - Parvati?
Eliza - Cirie
Result: Parvati wins 4-2-1
Cirie vs. Parvati vs. Alexis
Amanda - Parvati? (unless Parvati voted her out)
Catalie - Alexis
Ozzy - Alexis
Erik - Alexis
James - Parvati?
Jason - Alexis
Eliza - Cirie
Result: Alexis wins 4-2-1
Cirie vs. Parvati vs. Catalie
Amanda - Parvati? (unless Parvati voted her out)
Alexis- Catalie
Ozzy - Parvati?
Erik - Catalie
James - Parvati?
Jason - Catalie
Eliza - Cirie
Result: Parvati/Catalie tied 3-3-1
Cirie vs. Parvati
Amanda - Parvati? (unless Parvati voted her out)
Catalie - Parvati
Alexis - Parvati
Ozzy - Parvati?
Erik - Cirie
Jason - Parvati?
Eliza - Cirie
[James - Parvati]
Result: Parvati wins 5-2 (or 6-2 if James votes)
So the bottom line here is that Cirie probably can't win a jury vote unless the jury is very bitter towards Parvati and Alexis isn't in the Finals. But the only person I see as being potentially too bitter to vote for Parvati is Ozzy, and I think Alexis probably will be in the Finals, so Cirie's got a very, very tough mountain to climb, to say the least.
1. Assuming that the Final 5 is Parvati/Amanda/Cirie/Alexis/Catalie, then the only Final 5 boots that would make any sense would be Cirie and Alexis. Cirie is clearly at a disadvantage right off the bat in this scenario, for 2 reasons: Alexis has 2 strong allies (Catalie and Parvati) and Cirie has only 1 at best (Amanda), and Alexis is also more likely to win immunity. If Alexis wins immunity, then Cirie is almost definitely screwed. And even if Alexis doesn't win immunity, the only way for Cirie to stay is for Cirie and Amanda to convince Parvati to vote for Alexis over Cirie, but I don't see that happening. I think Parvati has every intention of vote out Cirie before Alexis, and Cirie and Amanda simply won't have the votes to stop her.
2. Probst's pre-showing hyping of Alexis seems to suggest she makes the finals, which further suggests that Cirie is probably voted out at Final 5.
3. Parvati and Alexis are notably absent from Cirie's MySpace friends, which supports the idea that they vote her out.
4. Even if Cirie manages to get Alexis voted out at Final 5, she's still probably the next person to go. Presumably at this point she would either target Catalie or Parvati. It would be hard to convince Parvati and Amanda that Catalie is a bigger jury vote threat than she is, and Parvati seems to almost definitely make it to Final 3, so it's once again very difficult to see how Cirie survives, particularly considering how seemingly unlikely it would be for her to win immunity.
5. In one of her post show interviews, Ami implies that the decision to vote her out over Erik works out fine for Amanda, but may turn out to be a mistake for Ozzy and Cirie. This does not seem to bode well for Cirie.
6. Similarly, in one of Eliza's post show interviews, she implies that Cirie had regrets about not attempting to vote out Ozzy instead of Eliza at Final 10. If she made the Finals, she probably wouldn't regret anything, so again this doesn't seem to bode well for Cirie.
7. Then there's the whole issue of the rumors that there may be a Final 2 this season. I don't really believe that this happens, but it would make it even more difficult for Cirie to win. Now she would not only have to survive the Final 5 vote and the Final 4 vote, but a Final 3 vote as well. And the likelihood of her either winning immunity or being taken to Final 2 by Parvati or Amanda seems incredibly small.
And then, after all of that, there's the problem of the jury vote. As I said, even if Cirie somehow made it to the Finals, it seems like it would be very difficult for her to get enough votes to win. Here's how I think the voting would go in 4 possible Cirie-in-the-Finals scenarios:
Cirie vs. Parvati vs. Amanda
Catalie - Parvati
Alexis - Parvati
Ozzy - Amanda?
Erik - Cirie?
James - Parvati?
Jason - Parvati?
Eliza - Cirie
Result: Parvati wins 4-2-1
Cirie vs. Parvati vs. Alexis
Amanda - Parvati? (unless Parvati voted her out)
Catalie - Alexis
Ozzy - Alexis
Erik - Alexis
James - Parvati?
Jason - Alexis
Eliza - Cirie
Result: Alexis wins 4-2-1
Cirie vs. Parvati vs. Catalie
Amanda - Parvati? (unless Parvati voted her out)
Alexis- Catalie
Ozzy - Parvati?
Erik - Catalie
James - Parvati?
Jason - Catalie
Eliza - Cirie
Result: Parvati/Catalie tied 3-3-1
Cirie vs. Parvati
Amanda - Parvati? (unless Parvati voted her out)
Catalie - Parvati
Alexis - Parvati
Ozzy - Parvati?
Erik - Cirie
Jason - Parvati?
Eliza - Cirie
[James - Parvati]
Result: Parvati wins 5-2 (or 6-2 if James votes)
So the bottom line here is that Cirie probably can't win a jury vote unless the jury is very bitter towards Parvati and Alexis isn't in the Finals. But the only person I see as being potentially too bitter to vote for Parvati is Ozzy, and I think Alexis probably will be in the Finals, so Cirie's got a very, very tough mountain to climb, to say the least.
But you're right, WylDawg.. if
she let this happen then it's her fault.
