This is the thread for IC analysis
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 Beef Jerky |
Episode 13 -- Immunity Challenge |
Lead | |
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Posts: 377 (04/23/01 9:02 PM) |
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Beef Jerky |
Polling thus far | ||
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Posts: 377 (04/23/01 9:27 PM) |
The Keith camp
(zihuataanego, pheenix111, bluegun, stlousanta, quartzeye, dgr81, fatevilcanuck, celine dijon, missing amber, bungler, fraisierfan, dickmoan, leavitator, aonemouse00) 14 votes The Elisabeth camp (Madwoman, Zuludog, justlikeprimerib, cardinal1986, tattsbaby, crocodilehunter, chaddog, Aone, Timewaster. Canadalurker, ssstefffii, crocophile, fingerid) 13 votes The Colby camp (stripeyL, Newfylad, Colbywins) 3 votes The (new) Tina camp (vulcat) 1 vote 1. I may have easily missed someone! IF SO WHO? 2. Colby camp, its looking grim, care to pick a winner between Liz and Keith? 3. Anyone care to change their vote? 4. Bungler, Okie, nomore I can't find your votes .... shit or get off the pot!!!! 5. In the event of a tie, I will cast the deciding vote. Reply to THIS thread to change or give your vote. |
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timewaster |
Re: Episode 13 -- Immunity Challenge | ||
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Posts: 158 (04/23/01 10:04 PM) |
Thought I'd drop my two cents in.
I have to cast my vote for Liz to win the IC. My vote is purely based on story lines. The editing of last weeks show leads me to believe that Lis isn't going this week (I posted this on the original mess thread). MB is a master editor, if nothing else. The emotional reaction to Rodger leaving was, I'm sure, just what he had planned. I don't think he'll follow up that gut wrencher with another "good guy" getting voted off. The backlass would be too strong. That's to say, If Lis was going this week, I think last week would have been edited very differently. And since the only way I see Lis sticking around is if she wins the IC, I vote for Lis! |
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goodlordman |
Immunity | ||
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Posts: 58 (04/23/01 10:13 PM) |
I don't know if any of those vid caps are of the reward challenge or the immunity challenge, but it's clear in at least one vidcap that Colby is ahead of Liz (the one where they are blindfolded at the rope maze).
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Chaddogg |
Immunity | ||
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Posts: 243 (04/23/01 10:23 PM) |
And to me it's infinitely clear that Keith doesn't win.
I'm probably Don Quixote, tilting at windmills here, but really...if there's one thing I think I know, it's that Keith doesn't win this IC. Remember last week, where we assumed Lis won the IC cause we never saw her? Well are you telling me you're going with Keith to win cause we don't see him compete? The only time we see him, he is clearly in the middle of the course, and not looking pleased. If a puzzle is behind him, this couldn't be before the challenge, cause allowing the contestants an opportunity to see the puzzle ahead of time would not be allowed. The only timing that fits Keith there is if it's the end of the challenge, and sad sad Keith didn't win. I may not convince people of Lis winning, but at least agree with me that Keith doesn't! Anyone? |
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colby wins 051981000 |
Re: Immunity | ||
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Posts: 25 (04/23/01 10:27 PM) |
OK, I just read all 22 pages of the Mess Hall *massive sigh* AND reviewed the vid caps, so I now feel like I'm in a position to make an educated guess-
I agree with the poster who said that the IC is a timed out event: the slowest at any stage is disqualified. Makes sense to me. I also agree that Keith is most likely disqualified at the blindfolded-rope-maze leg, just because he did so BADLY at the reward challenge with the ropes. I also think that Lis probably will lose. We are shown A LOT of pictures with her in the IC. Last week, they showed a lot of pics with Tina and Lis, leading everyone to think either of them won. I think this whole obstacle course favors Colby and Keith: they are the players that were the best at the IC last episode, and the fire-starting episode. The fact that they have to lug heavy buckets of water across a balance beam (IMHO) negates all advantage Lis would have in that area. I think the shot with Lis looking happy is a red herring, or irrelevant. I also think the comment about it "being anyone's game now" is more evidence of Keith's withdrawal and paranoia. He thought he would go last episode, and he has to feel like he'll leave this one too. In conclusion, I think Colby wins another IC. Sorry this is so long 
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TheMillhams |
Re: Immunity | ||
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Posts: 42 (04/23/01 10:30 PM) |
I know I've never posted here before, but I'm throwing in my .02 anyway. Throw my vote in the Elisabeth corner. I'm holding out for a Kucha to make it into the F2. I'm also basing my bet on the "Elisabeth kicks butt in the challenges" spoiler that surfaced awhile back.
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Beef Jerky |
Re: Immunity | ||
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Posts: 377 (04/23/01 10:52 PM) |
Millhams: to have a vote that counts you will have to do better than that!
Consider the arguments for and against based on vid caps etc. Also that quote is innacurate I beleive its Elisabeth kicks butt but it wasn't said in relation to ICs Colby supports pick Elisabeth or Keith because you aren't going to make it! |
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Nomoore |
IC winner = not Keith (sorry a little ambiguous) | ||
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Posts: 89 (04/23/01 10:56 PM) |
Sorry guys, you all are doing such a fine job figuring out the game I am being real quiet this week. I can speculate a million things about IC winner but it cannot be Keith.
Recently, he has not been good at playing cleanly in challenges - he's always thinking about the next task, instead of concentrating on the one at hand. I believe this could be fatal in a multi-tasked challenge. He "tested" the balance on the teeter-totter thing, instead of just getting more water. He's thinking about victory at the finish line instead of holding on to his locks. He has exhibited poor judgement in many situations. He did horrible in an earlier rope challenge. ***A note and question on this. Vidcap showing K/C/T/L getting lowdoown on IC (Tina puts hand to mouth, Lis gasps) Keith is wearing sunglasses. Where are these sunglasses in the shot of him with hands on hips? If this shot was of him surveying the playing field, would he have taken off the glasses? Has this been discussed? Colby plays every challenge hard and focused. I would love to see him lose one, but its doubtful if the challenge is primarily physical. I agree he may not be able to pace himself and muscle fatigue (LAF) may become a factor. Liz needs this. Her sports background involves sprinting. She has a lower center of gravity, giving advantage on beam. She is no dummy, so perhaps will do well if there are puzzles. But I honestly can't see her winning against Colby or even Tina, who has most of the same advantages she does. ('Cept those ten pound boobs) Tina - I can't figure out why she hasn't won anything yet, except that Colby's still in the game... For more reason why it cannot be Keith, see Tribal Council thread. |
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canadalurker |
IC winner - Liz | ||
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Posts: 57 (04/23/01 11:30 PM) |
I guess I've got to commit to Liz winning this because I believe that Keith is toast this week. So using logic...
yeah whatever! The only way I don't see Liz gone is her winning this. That very fragile spoiler from way back 'kick butt' makes me think maybe she only wins one or two when it really counts. In terms of the vidcaps - you guys have done an incredible job of dissecting the challenges and I do think most of your work supports Liz having a good shot to win this. Maybe 'challenge of a lifetime' refers to her survivor lifetime - she wins this and it extends her life one more episode. |
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stlousanta |
IC winner = Keith | ||
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Posts: 527 (04/23/01 11:42 PM) |
Take a look at the vid-cap of the four survivors arriving at the IC. Note that Keith looks muscular and compact next to Colby. Keith, according to his bio, enjoys sports like biking, weight-lifting, wall climbing, tennis, and hiking--a mix of strenuous and paced sports. Colby looks emaciated. The gals don't look much better.
MESS has agreed that this challenge combines elements of previous IC's. (Since there are four separate "lanes", one for each survivor, a timed event has been ruled out by MESS.) The first is a rope maze where the survivor goes through blindfolded. Colby and Lis are shown in later vid-caps with the green blindfold pulled down around their necks while they are still competing in the challenge--they did not take time to remove the blindfold--just pulled it down and raced on. The controversial Keith vid-cap shows him standing with his ball cap and no sign of the blindfold with the rope maze behind him and what some say is a water bucket in the lower left. Some say he's just been disqualified in the challenge or that this is after he lost. You will note behind him in this controversial vid-cap, there is the rope maze. However, the aerial vid-cap does not show the rope maze, only four roped lanes coming into the water bucket area. So, my take is this is pre-challenge--not during the challenge or after the challenge. For this cap to be either of those, Keith would have had to accept the blindfold, mash his cap down, navigate the rope maze, pull his cap off, pull the blindfold off, place his cap back, and go on to the rest of the challenge. He won't waste time for all of that. It's put up or shut up time for Keith. He's the only one of the 16 who said his primary goal was the money. Now's the time to go for it--and take the IC. Keith has done these challenges before so he has learned from his mistakes and he won't make them in the Ultimate Challenge. He had the determination, guts and balls to work hard to oust Jerri--and convinced Colby to do so even when Colby initially said it was a bad strategy play. You want determination--look at that vid-cap of Keith with the tribal colors tied around his head. It's almost scary in its intensity. If he wants the mil, nows the time to take charge. And I think he will do it. Don't believe me? Evaluate Colby in the "huffin and puffin" run for the woods vid-cap which MESS agrees is part of the IC. Doesn't look like Colby is pacing this challenge too well--almost like he's running down. The vid-cap of Tina doesn't show her huffin and puffin. Even the Lis vid-caps show she's making a determined and strong effort. Compare all of these to that scary pic of Keith....'nuff said. |
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frasierfan |
IC-Keith | ||
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Posts: 23 (04/24/01 12:14 AM) |
I originally thought T/K would allow the Colbster another victory, but the previews lead us to believe that its a race between E and C. Clearly MB would not let us have such evidence, thus I'm going with Keith to win. He has clearly beat Colby twice before and I believe the rumors that Keith and Tina threw the Slingshot IC to prevent any politicing by the Colby.
Another point, the blindfolded phase of the IC would more likely be the start of the course b/c it would be too difficult to have them blindfolded in the middle or end where they'd have the opportunity to take a peek at the obstacle prior to being blindfolded. |
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Beef Jerky |
IC=Liz | ||
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Posts: 377 (04/24/01 12:14 AM) |
I think if the contestants were allowed to survey the course they would still be in close proximity as would Jeff.
Where Keith is standing he'd be able to get a good look at the Mind Master sliding puzzle and start working on it in his mind. The castaways have never been able to survey a challenge individually. They have always been explained the rules as a group. I can accept that Keith may have taken his shades off because he wanted to see the course better. But it is a discrepancy. I think Keith fell off the beam and is watching the winner with jealousy. Colby is too muscle bound and gets a bad case of rubber legs. Clearly Elisabeth is the winner. Thats why if the above votes end in a tie I will go with Keith. I am not sticking my neck out for Elisabeth again. |
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pardonedbyclinton |
keith? | ||
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Posts: 68 (04/24/01 12:48 AM) |
It is odd that they don't show a single pic of keith competing or wearing a blindfold. Why would they do this? Either he didn't compete (disqualified?), he's eliminated (and rather quickly), or he wins and they are trying to hide it.
I don't think he would be arrogant enough not to even try, and he doesn't look sick or anything. He could be disqualified if he broke a rule or sprained his ankle in the ropes but where is the blindfold? I can't go with the elimination theory, because there are clearly 4 of everything: beams, towers, etc. as if they intended for everyone to complete the course. If it's timed elimination, I can't beleive Keith would be the slowest. And the balance beam seems to be the only event you could be disqualified for a mistake (can't fall off a rope course, or try the puzzle just one time) so that seems off. Also, elimination-type competitions don't seem to be Survivor style, they've been set up to give everyone (read, the men)a 'chance'. And I have NEVER seen anyone cheat... So that leaves us with Keith winning? Why in the world would they hide every single competitive shot of Keith from us? That's just weird, and then slipping in that one photo of keith crawling on the ground under a rope that we've determined is from an earlier show. I am starting to question if he competes ar all. Seriously. Maybe he was too paranoid to put on a blindfold! |
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volcat |
A different twist | ||
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Posts: 614 (04/24/01 1:29 AM) Registered user |
Bear with me. I'm new at this analysis stuff. I could never figure out as much as all of you have just by looking at the vidcaps and preview footage. Amazing!
I'm looking at the clues given in the preview. Specifically the one about the "ultimate betrayer." Clearly that has to be Tina betraying Keith. (I know this has already been said, but hang on for my reasoning.) Here's why: Elisabeth is aligned with no one -- that we have been SHOWN. The preview clues go along with what viewers have seen. Most people watching the show don't analyze it to death like we do here. So, Liz is seen as a lone contestant. No one to betray. Colby is in with Tina and Keith, but last week we were shown the crack in his alliance with Keith. We haven't been shown that he is super tight with Tina. So, he can't really betray Keith. He could betray Tina, but that seems unlikely, plus, they are not a "pair." We HAVE been shown that Tina and Keith are tight. For this to be an ultimate betrayer/betrayal, it has to be between the closest pair: Tina/Keith. For it to be a betrayal, seems like it would have to be a case where Tina COULD vote for Liz or Colby, but CHOOSES to vote for Keith instead. And that vote would have to end up in Keith's being ousted. In other words, Tina's vote for Keith wouldn't just be a third vote (along with Liz and Colby). That would get Keith ousted but would that be an "ultimate betrayal"? Because even if she voted for Colby (if Liz won IC) and Colby and Liz voted for Keith, Keith would still be gone. (More votes than Colby.) For it to be the "ultimate betrayal," Tina needs to be the reason that Keith goes. Meaning Tina would have to win IC. Then, Liz would vote for Keith, Keith and Colby would vote for Liz, but Tina -- in the "ultimate" betrayal -- would vote for Keith. The votes would be tied, but Keith would have more votes, which Tina knows, and he goes. The "ultimate betrayal/betrayer." I know, I know ... this is a stretch, but it could happen. Here's my theory: Tina is determined that someone who she feels deserves the money will win it. She knows Colby has done well in challenges and he was willing to dump Jerri's weakling alliance for a stronger one (Outplay). Liz, despite her hair falling out, her stomach woes, her fatigue/hunger, has hung in there (Outlast). Not to mention Liz's mom having cancer, which would endear her to Tina. What has Keith done to deserve to win? He's aligned himself with Colby and Tina, but that's about it recently. Plus, he's getting a bit too self-confident and arrogant. (Leaving the backpack behind, making too much rice.) OK. You're saying, "What has Tina done?" She masterminded this whole alliance with Colby and Keith way back when Jerri let the world know that her friends were "Mitchell, Colby and Amber." Right then Tina knew she had to do something drastic to stay in the game. She went to Keith and got him. That was easy. She tried to get Mitchell but he would not leave Jerri. So, she went to Colby. He agreed. (Outwit) Tina is running the show, ala Richard Hatch. Colby is athletic enough to win challenges and stay in that way, but Tina has stayed around by being strategic, smart and always staying one step ahead. I guess I drifted off topic, but I was trying to make a point. I think Tina wins IC this week, and I know Keith is gone. |
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Chaddogg |
Re: A different twist | ||
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Posts: 243 (04/24/01 2:23 AM) |
Stlou,
A determined look? That's all you can give me as justification for Keith winning? Sorry, but you're gonna need to do better than that.... Look, their hobbies back in the real world don't matter anymore....neither do "fierce looks" at the camera, or how they've always said "they're in it for the money"....look at the evidence objectively, and tell me for a fact that Keith wins, and offer some real solid evidence. I understand you and others being skeptical of Lis winning, that's fine with me. But assuming Keith wins due to his lack of blindfold or his "focused" look earlier at camp is frankly stretching it a bit for me... |
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dickmoan |
Beef | ||
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Posts: 237 (04/24/01 7:53 AM) |
Can i put another vote in using my alter ego. Because i am saying Liz absolutely doesn't win. I (have said many times before) think people that think she does are relying on the stupid stupid kick butt comment. I don't know if the comment was true but really hasn't she done that already since she made it to F4 and is the sole remmainder of her tribe.
Also i know you all like to look at the vidcaps to determine the winner. I do too but i base my answer on other evidence and how it would make sense. That's why i picked Colby last week and i am picking Liz not to this week. i am going with Colby again but i equally think it could be Keith. Why? Absolutely nothing to do with the caps they don't prove anything, If Liz wins IC then how can anyone betray anyone if someone gives me a possible explination i might think about her winning IC. If CTK have to vote for one of their own i don't see it as a betrayal. thank you all |
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zihuatanejo |
Keith wins, betrayal | ||
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Posts: 113 (04/24/01 8:02 AM) |
For reasons I listed at the end of original thread, I think Keith wins. I agree with dickmoan -- if Liz wins, there will be no betrayal (no one will convince me that Tina or Keith will vote for the other next week -- it makes no sense for either of them). If Colby wins, he could betray the Oga's by siding with Liz and voting off Keith, but I don't think he does it. Colby is savvy -- as we know from his comment (in a voice over prior to TC) last week, he's thinking about who he sits next to in F2. I think he is willing to take the risk on losing to Keith in F2 for his best shot to get the $$$$. Tina won't win because she does not feel vulnerable. She has no reason to go all out in IC. It's Keith -- and the betrayal is that Tina and Keith vote to get rid of Colby even though they do not have to and could vote for Liz.
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dickmoan |
Re: Keith wins, betrayal | ||
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Posts: 237 (04/24/01 8:31 AM) |
Your theory is what i believe in my head too.
Some how though i don't picture Colby getting booted he along with Tina has been my pic to win it all long long ago i just can't get past it. Keith has looked like an idiot out there though and you'd think him coming back from near elimination on numerous times (Mitchell tie, IC win on pole, blowing 2 IC, Being mocked by Colby for his wedding proposal, can't cook rice although he's a chef, Colby thought about booting him before) last week when Colby discussed that he had to think who he'd rather sit next to in F2 someone who'd guarantee him the money (Keith) or someone who'd he be happy if they won instead of him (Rodger) that could have been huge foreshadowing. He made the bad pick because this week Keith who was very worried last week that Colby would turn on him wins IC and then turns on Colby after Colby had trusted him the most. I don't know why i am trying to convince myself to change my pick..... for now it's still Colby winning and Keith leaving. |
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Unregistered(d) |
Re: Episode 13 -- Immunity Challenge | ||
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Posts: 0 (04/24/01 8:34 AM) |
I'm gonna throw my 2 cents into the Mess Hall for the first time too. Im going with Keith as the winner. 1)everyone says how strong Colby is..well, Nick won 1, Colby has one 3, and Keith has won 2, but we know that Keith would have 2 of Colby's if he didnt blunder....2)I like someone elses theory that Keith would of had to take the hat off in order to compete with the blindfold...thus making his "dejected" pic somewhat out...3)also, concerning that pic, it doesnt look to me like he just got done competing in the "immunity of a lifetime", even if it was just the rope maze. I would think that he would be sweaty, and look somewhat tired being in the hot sun and not having much energy. I think this whole pic is taken before the game begins. 4)no shots of him competing..a curveball by Burnett 5)I dont really see any brute strength needed here...just stamina and brains. Keith is a good firestarter, and i think he makes his move to the lead here.
I just dont think he gives away that much to Colby when it comes to immunity challenges. One thing I do wonder though, and it has bothered me before...if these guys are so weak and tired, drained of energy....why do they bother finishing these physical immunity challenges when they know that have already lost...e.g.- Keith/Rodger/Liz hustling to the end of the rope challenge when Colby already had them beat. I wouldnt waste the strength...especially on this immunity challenge we have here in week 13. I guess if you dont finish, others would view you as a poor sport. |
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thefran61 |
If Keith... | ||
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Posts: 2212 (04/24/01 8:37 AM) |
then will the vote be 3-1 or 2-1-1?
I still feel the betrayal story is for the next episode when Tina and Keith pull the rug out from Elizabeth. To see the actual betrayal, we would have to see a LOT of Tina in this episode. We have not seen a lot of Tina in any episode really. And, although he is not trusted, MB states that people will like the way this season pans out. Would people really like to see a big betrayal? Yes, if the betrayal occurred to someone who deserved it. However, all the remaining survivors are moderate, i.e., not that bad (compared to last season). Keith, Tina, and Colby all have some undersirable traits, but you don't have the universal hatred like last season. If there is a big betrayal, I see it in two parts, one this week when Colby goes and one next week when Keith or Lis go. TC this week is Colby |
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