S-16 Edgic (editing and logic)

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fat little fingers

S-16 Edgic (editing and logic)

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(02/03/08 10:06 PM)

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Welcome to Edgic for Survivor 16: Micronesia - Fans vs Favorites. (Or as I like to call it, Half-ASS)

We devote this thread to try and pick the winner (hopefully by or before the merge) by looking at the editing, player by player, and applying logic from past editing patterns or observations about what we have been shown.

How Edgic Works
Everyone is welcome to participate, so for anyone new who wants to jump on board here is generally how it goes:

After watching each episode posters rate the players:

Step 1:
Ratings: OTT, CP, MOR, UTR and INV
OTT (over the top)
CP (complex personality)
MOR (middle of the road)
UTR (under the radar)
INV (Invisible)

Step 2:
Tone: NN, N, neutral (no tone), P, PP (Rate players from Really Negative to Really Positive)
* M (Mixed) This is a special Tone designation. It is used when a player has both negative and positive scenes in one episode. It helps differentiate from the "nothing" (neutral) tone of a neglected character. It shows active manipulation of a character, rather than a passive or neglected edit.

Step 3:
Visibility: 1-5 (From 1 or low visibility to 5 or high visibility)

First Page Posts Below is all the info you can get here on the first page.

Comprehensive Guidelines and Charting: Below in Warrior's next two posts are the more detailed comprehensive guidelines we use, and some charts that will come in handy for analysis.

Visibility Charts (Warrior) are next.

Strategy (MasterDarkNinja) and Second Person Visibility (scepticA) charts come in the next two posts.

Watchdog Reports on Individual Players:
Following Strategy and SPV are posts from Individual Watchdogs (WDs). A Watchdog makes a special effort to study a specific player. These posts offer links to their reports made each episode.

Old Edgic Threads
Past Edgic threads are in the "Spoiler Attic" collection of classic Sucks threads. (Note - not all seasons were saved and some seasons are out of order.)

Voting
Once there seems to be a general consensus of trust in your participation,(in understanding how Edgic works and your positive participation), simply pm chaperone or me, fat little fingers, and ask for the voting site address.

*Special Note: Newbies, though you don't have the official voting site, your ratings (and especially your reasons for them) are appreciated and can contribute greatly to the Edgic outcome. The voting site is given out when there is a consensus of posters who are comfortable and familiar enough with the new Edgic participant. Your ratings and opinions are important and valued! The simple act of voting will soon enough follow.

New posters are welcomed and encouraged. New ideas and fresh eyes are good for Edgic.

This thread has always been flame-free and we also strive to keep it spoiler-free. That should not change for this season.

flf

Last Edited By: fat little fingers 02/06/08 7:48 PM. Edited 2 times.

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(02/04/08 6:39 AM)

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Edgic Guidelines

Observations (In new order)

1) The winner may have ups and downs, but is typically not too UTR/INV or too OTT.
2) The winner will typically have a fair amount of meaningful editing and typically won't be ignored in long stretches.
3) Typically the winner is not overly Positive or Negative.
4) The winner is very unlikely to receive an INV rating during the course of the season, and will likely receive at least a 2 visibility in Episode 1.
5) Over the course of the game the winner's presence and visibility should end up closer to the average of all the players. (The winner typically gravitates to near the top in MOR differential, which calculates the closeness to average in presence, tone and ratings).
6) Typically the winner is surrounded by players who keep our focus to distract us from the winner. These players are often OTT and much of the complexity and strategy centers in this core group. This core group can be a combination of members of more than one complex group, rather than all being from one, original tribe.
.....old 5) The tribe (or the core group that will surround a surprise winner) that has the most complex dynamics and strategy usually contains the winner.
.....old 6) Typically the winner is surrounded by the player/s receiving the distracting edit.
7) The winner will have substantial comments/insight from many of the jury members that may resurface in front of the jury or mislead the audience on voting.
8) The ending is typically set up to be a somewhat of a 'surprise'. You either don't expect the winner or second place to be there. These two are often manipulated in the editing to make each look like they have a chance to win.
9) If two people are a 'known final pair' then the likelihood of them actually being the final two is slim. It would need to be a situation that cannot be avoided (i.e. Amber/Rob)

Complex tribe:

1) Complex tribe has nothing to do with strategy -the average person doesn't care. It has to do with dangling, loose ends -anxious for us to revisit.
2) Complex tribe gets the most focus pre-merge.
3) In theory, the reason the tribe seems complex, is because the focus may be surrounding the winner or final core players.

Ratings

INV - Invisible

1) Irrelevant, no confessionals or tribal council questions in the early episodes, little or no confessionals or tribal council questions in the mid to late episodes.
2) The player's editing was insignificant to any character development.

UTR - Under the radar

1) UTR means a character that is either underutilized or deliberately hidden (the trick is figuring out which). In story terms, they are kept out of focus. An UTR edit means the player may be seen, but they aren't seen doing or saying anything of major significance. Since showcasing players who do nothing isn't very entertaining, UTR edits do tend toward low visibility, but that needn't be the case.
2) Players who receive significant face time, but little to no speaking time.
3) The UTR Edit within an episode will typically be void of direct conflicts and character insight.
4) If the player gets some significant screen time, but doesn't do anything special, then you rate it UTR.

MOR - Middle of the road

1) MOR means something between UTR, CP, and OTT. They say and do enough to avoid UTR, but they're not emphasized caricatures or developed personalities. This is a holding episode for characters who could be CP, but the story didn't particularly involve them, or for normally UTR characters who couldn't escape inclusion in the story. As such, winners are often portrayed as MOR at some point in the story. However, a consistently MOR edit is not a good thing because these characters are more just kind of there.
2) Someone who gets an odd positive and negative mix, but not in an Over the Top manner.
3) If the player did something that you feel makes them better that UTR, but not enough to qualify for CP, then you rate MOR.
4) MOR can be used to describe characters who were mostly UTR with a fair amount of CP.

CP - Complex personality

1) CP means a character that is well-developed. Their editing has depth to it, and their choices are presented to the audience so that we get an insight into their thinking. We generally see their strengths and flaws. Not too surprisingly, these are the major players in the course of the game, and it is their choices that shape the story.
2) CP shows complexity of thought about the game, and or complex emotions that might be construed as Positive or Negative. "Players" like Brian, Shii Ann, Jeff Varner, or Chris, during the normal course of their editing, would in my mind be complex because they were always in the game. and many of their edits related directly to the strategic maneuvering in their tribe (successful or not).
3) Someone who expresses internal conflict over a situation, someone who expresses a "deep" or turbulent emotion like remorse, loneliness, or betrayal expressed intelligently and not like "You're a liar, T!;" someone who demonstrates a complex strategy or bold strategic move and their reasoning for it. There has to be something shown in interviews that contradicts what we've seen or adds conflict to the scenario.
4) If the player gets quality screen time and is either shown multiple times being strategic or shows a multi-dimensional side, then you go with CP.

OTT - Over the top

1) OTT means a character that is being characterized or simplified. In story terms, they are the villains and heroes, the ones we love to love or hate. A consistently OTT character is presented as a distraction to the other players. Of course, not all OTT players stay that way, and often an OTT player will go UTR for awhile if the editors want to bring them back to the main storyline as a more well-rounded character. Contrasting OTT edits in the same player (OTTN v. OTTP) generally mean a more complex edit over the course of the show.
2) OTT players are generally always edited in a Positive or Negative light.
3) A mixture of positive and negative editing ends up being neutral overall.
4) Usually lacking in strategy, or strategy not expressed with much internal conflict - but they can have lots and lots of conflict with other people; no remorse if N and no "evil" strategizing if P - only focusing on loyalty or saving one's own skin

Tone

PP) Extremely positive.
P) Positive.
No rating Static neutral
M) Dynamic Mixed neutral - If you think someone was noticibly P AND N within one episode.
N) Negative.
NN) Extremely negative.

Visibility Measures the amount of presence that a player had in an episode. Visibility includes confessionals, speaking time, face time, second person visibility and tribal council questions (TCQ).

1) Low visibility.
2) Medium low visibility.
3) Average visibility.
4) Medium high visibility.
5) High visibility.

Second Person Visbility (SPV)

Second person visibility is a count of the number of times a contestant is talked about by other contestants (either in confessionals or during game play footage) in a significant context. It excludes simple lists of contestants names (e.g. Katie saying that she, Janu, Ian and Wanda will vote for Coby) or simple descriptive passages (e.g. Caryn saying that Jeff looked funny riding a horse).

Revision: Many contributors to Edgic have noticed that there are differences among the SPVs shown that we believe might be materially significant to the overall edit. Because of this, the classification of SPVs for Survivor 15 will go beyond a basic tally of number of SPVs and will analyze the nature of each SPV. These are all tallies for the individual that is spoken about the second person.

SPV Tone:

Positive, Negative or Neutral. Regardless of whether the SPV is accurate or not, the general tone of the SPV content is noted.

SPV Type:

I) (inconsequential); General in nature, without significant substance or tone. Example: John and I went to get the tree mail. This is a difference in SPV analysis; for S15 all mentions of another person will be tallied. They may be as previously believed irrelevant. But they are SPVs, so they will be tallied.
S) (Strategic) The content discusses the strategy of the second person (NOT of the speaker. This will be included in the speaker's rating, not in an SPV rating.)
G) (General) The content is of a general nature, more than inconsequential but not strategic. Example: discussions of injuries. I liken this to the standard MOR Edgic rating.
R) (Reinforced) The content of the SPV is reinforced by images of the second person acting in a way described in the SPV. Example: John is really lazy, followed by images of John sleeping and lying about when others are working.
C) (Contradicted). The content of the SPV is contradicted by images of the second person acting in a way contrary to the SPV. Example: John is really lazy, followed by images of John working very hard. This SPV, which doesn't occur often, has so far without exception been used as a strong negative indicator against the speaker rather than the second person.

Not all SPVs will have an R or C. In fact, most won't.

Game Strategy Ratings

S0 - Nothing Strategic. Either the player is not present in the episode (INV) or his comments are always narration about camp life, not strategy.
S1 - Somebody in the background during strategy sessions, or shown making one short confessional about his boot decision. Could even be shown taking a minor role talking about strategy but with no confessionals about strategy.
S2 - Somebody who is shown in multiple strategy sessions, or talking with different people, or rallying to boot somebody, etc. - but isn't all over the place when it comes to strategy.
S3 - These are the people who dominate the strategy talk. The greatest example of S3 for me is Brian C. in the "bait Blake" episode. Every time Brian is shown, he is being strategic, explaining the game from his point of view, we know what his plan is and how's he going to make it work. Every strategic thing is shown through his eyes. Usually an S3 person will be shown strategizing almost all the time they're on screen.

Posting Schedule

Thursday - Episode airs and all posters begin posting ratings.
Monday (Noon) - All ratings are due.
Monday (Noon Pacific Time) - Episode Tally is posted with close calls listed. (any rating where there is not at least 55% agreement), discussion on close calls begins.
Wednesday (by Noon) - Discussion on close calls ends.
Wednesday (by 6) - After considering discussion, Category Watchdogs and Player Watchdogs make the final call. If they disagree fat little fingers will have the final say.
When the vote fails to reach a 55% majority the player WD and Category WD will each choose the rating they feel best represents the edit from any rating consisting of more than 20% of the vote. If they disagree, the overseer will choose the rating he/she feels is best between the two WD ratings or any other rating that consists of more than 33% of the vote.

Assignments

Category Watchdogs

1) Rating watchdog: guatemalafanfic
2) Tone watchdog: OnlyTheHunter
3) Visibility watchdog: Warrior
4) Overseer watchdog: fat little fingers

Player Watchdogs

Alexis	unduli clone
Chet	AndreSurvivor
Erik	Pulau Tiga
Jason	nikkidj
Joel	island sun
Kathleen	Apollo Italino
Mary	GretchenIsMyGod
Mike B	MasterDarkNinja
Natalie	Werwanderflugen
Tracy	Kitty Pride1
Amanda	Francois40
Ami	JaMalle
Cirie	ScepticA
Eliza	colleenlover
James	SFC
Jonathan	winterland121072
Jonny	Craig
Ozzy	beatles20147
Parvati	fat little fingers
Yau-Man	BlakeB717

Special Watchdogs

SPV Watchdog - scepticA
Strategy Watchdogs - MasterDarkNinja
T.C. Voting Watchdog - OnlyTheHunter
Recap / J.P. Watchdog - OnlyTheHunter

Your main responsibility is to make sure your "player or category" is getting a fair rating each week. So many times we all give our ratings, chaperone tallies and Warrior charts them. Your job will be to give it that second look and send up a flare if something looks odd.
Everyone will be rating ALL the players as normal. If people want to make a special effort with their 'watchdog' player, that will be cool too. The main thing is to just keep an eye on final ratings each week so that 'your' player is not being falsely rated.

Official Tallies: chaperone

Webmaster: chaperone

Edgic Charts: Warrior

SPV and Charts: Warrior

Confessionals: ILUVTIJUANA (Please check ILT's thread for confessional count and content.)

Edgic Guidelines: Warrior

Strategic Comments: MasterDarkNinja

Episode Reference

Episode 1 discussion starts on page 4....Tally on page 18
Episode 2 discussion starts on page 24..Tally on page 36
Episode 3 discussion starts on page 43..Tally on page 61
Episode 4 discussion starts on page ..Tally on page
Episode 5 discussion starts on page ..Tally on page
Episode 6 discussion starts on page ..Tally on page
Episode 7 discussion starts on page ..Tally on page
Episode 8 discussion starts on page .Tally on page
Episode 9 discussion starts on page .Tally on page
Episode 10 discussion starts on page .Tally on page
Episode 11 discussion starts on page .Tally on page
Episode 12 discussion starts on page .Tally on page
Episode 13 discussion starts on page .Tally on page
Episode 14 discussion starts on page .Tally on page
"The Edgies" presentation starts on page

Last Edited By: Warrior 02/25/08 2:29 PM. Edited 2 times.

Warrior

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(02/04/08 6:40 AM)

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CHARTS

Overall Ratings Courtsey of guatemala funfic.

S-1 Courtsey of 9RedWing19

S-2 Courtsey of 9RedWing19

S-3 Courtsey of gualemala funfic and TheIsraeliDevil.

S-4 Courtsey of guatemala funfic and cantthinkofaname.

S-5 Courtsey of 9RedWing19

S-6 Courtsey of 9RedWing19

S-7 Courtsey of 9RedWing19

S-7 Rated to the 2006 guidelined by Warrior and Crew.

S-8 Courtsey of 9RedWing19

S-9 Courtsey of 9RedWing19

S-10 Courtsey of 9RedWing19

S-11 Courtsey of 9RedWing19

S-12 CHARTS

* Player was sent to Exile Island

S-13 CHARTS

**Player was sent to Exile Island and shown there.
*Player was sent to Exile Island but not shown there.

S-14 CHARTS

**Player was sent to Exile Island and shown there.
*Player was sent to Exile Island but not shown there.

S-15 CHART

S-16 CHART

CLOSE CALLS

Second Person Visibility

Second Person Visibility (SPV) is a count of the number of times a contestant is talked about by other contestants (either in confessionals or during gameplay footage) in a significant context. It excludes simple lists of contestants names (e.g. Katie saying that her, Janu, Ian and Wanda will vote for Coby) or simple descriptive passages (e.g. Caryn saying that Jeff looked funny riding a horse). A cell highlighted in blue indicates that the contestant was either booted or in danger of being booted in that episode.

This data is being counted to test the theory that the winner has a relatively high SPV count (postulated by KQ based on his observation of JennaM in S6).

This data is being counted and categorized by ScepticA, see his post below.

S-9

S-10

S-11

S-12

S-13

S-14

S-16

Voting Results:

F-9

S1-No switch, Tagi majority 5-4, Tagi winner
S2-No switch, Ogakor majority 5-4, Ogakor winner
S3-Switch, Boran majority 5-4, Boran winner - exception
S4-Switch, Rotu majority 7-2, Maraamu winner
S5-No switch, Chuay Gahn majority 5-4, Chuay Gahn winner
S6-Switch, Tambaqui majority 5-4, Jaburu winner
S7-No switch, Drake majority 5-4, Drake winner
S8-No switch, Chapera plurality 4-3-2, Chapera winner
S9-Switch, Yasur majority 6-3, Lopevi winner
S10-No switch, Koror majority 8-1, Koror winner
S11-Switch, Yaxha majority 5-4, Nakum winner

Last Edited By: Warrior 07/27/08 1:44 PM. Edited 12 times.

Warrior

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Last Edited By: Warrior 05/09/08 7:45 AM. Edited 11 times.

MasterDarkNinja

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Strategy Guidelines
1) The winner will not have any S3 episodes until very late into the season.
2) The winner will not have three or more S0 episodes in a row.
3) The winner will generally have a mix of S1's and S2's, with a few S0's (probably in the first half of the season), and possibly an S3 late in the season.

New Strategy Guidelines
1) The winner will not have three or more S0 episodes in a row.
2) The winner will not receive four or more S0's.

Strategy Analysis
(Note: By strategy analysis I mean what I think of each player's strategy edits so far and where their strategy edit could be going)
Postseason Analysis of Strategy Ratings

Notes
Episode #1:
-Cirie, & Jason are a debatable S0
-Erik is a debatable S1
Episode #2:
-Tracy is a debatable neutral
-Alexis, Amanda, Eliza, & Ozzy are a debatable S0
-Jason, & Natalie are a debatable S1
-Jonathan was a debatable S2
Episode #3:
-Mikey B is a debatable =
-James, Kathy, Mikey B, & Yau-Man are a debatable S0
-Joel is a debatable S1
-Ozzy & Parvati are a debatable S2
Episode #4:
-Joel is a debatable =
-Ozzy, & Tracy are a debatable +
-Cirie, Erik, Jason, Jonathan, & Natalie are a debatable S0
-Ami, Eliza, Mikey B, & Ozzy are a debatable S1
Episode #5:
-Joel is a debatable -
-Ozzy is a debatable neutral
-Cirie, & Jason are a debatable S1
Episode #6:
-Jason is a debatable =
-Eliza, & Jonathan are a debatable S0
-Ami, James, & Ozzy are a debatable S1
Episode #7:
-Ami, Cirie, James, & Parvati are a debatable S1
Episode #8:
-James, Jason, & Natalie are a debatable S0
-Amanda, & Parvati are a debatable S2
-Ami & Erik are a debatable S3
Episode #9:
-Amanda is a debatable S1
-Alexis, Eliza, & Parvati are a debatable S2
Episode #10:
-Jason, & Parvati are a debatable S1
-James is a debatable S2
Episode #11:
-Alexi, Amanda, & Cirie are a debatable S1
-Jason is a debatable S3
Episode #12:
-Cirie, & James are a debatable S1
-Parvati is a debatable S2
Episode #13:
-Erik gets his own triple - rating for being such a -- moron even before he gave away immunity and got voted out

Past Season's Strategy Charts
S11

S12

S13

S14

S15

Last Edited By: MasterDarkNinja 05/10/08 9:27 PM. Edited 14 times.

scepticA

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Episode 4 on page 81

Second Person Visibility, Episode 5.

Whoo-wee. Got an extra 90 minutes tonight I didn't think I'd have....

An interesting week for SPVs. There were almost as many that were group generic: A fave saying: "Boy the fans/fans' camp/fans' effort really sucks." Or a fan saying wonderful nice-nice things about the faves in general.

But there were a few real SPVs.

Fans (and sorry, I still don't know my airari from my mokokalalklal):

Alexis: 0 (But if you can stand to remember Fiji and like Alexis, think: Earl.)
Chet: 12. 3 GN, 6Sneut, 3SN. This doesn't count every time his name was mentioned, but every time his name was mentioned once by a person in a specific conversation.
Eric: 1. Sneut.
Jason: 1. SN.
Joel: 8. 2 GN, 4Sneut, 2SN.
Kathy: 1. Sneut
Natalie: 0
Tracy: 3. 1 GP, 2S. The P was Cirie praising her to Oz/Amanda. It was a strategic talk, but the reference was general. And very P

Faves:

Amanda: 3. 1 GP, 1 Sneut, 1SP
Ami: 0. Poor Ami. Her hurt knee was mentioned by Jonathan, but not her name. Maybe we can give her a 0.5 G.
Cirie: 2. 2Sneut
Eliza: 0
James: 3. 2 Gneut, 1 SP
Jonathan: 0
Oz: 5. 3GP, 2Sneut
Parvati: 2. 1 SP, 1 G.
Two medics: 1 GP.

Not much unusual here this week, SPV-wise. Chet's numbers have been huge, and not good. Maybe he can be a late-game person but he could never win.

Last Edited By: scepticA 03/12/08 9:58 PM. Edited 5 times.

scepticA

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Cirie Watchdog Report

Week 1:

This is a simple one, and it's pretty much the consensus.

An initial confessional - Good! Had high hopes for her. But all it did was restate the obvious: The Couch Potato returneth.

Then quiet til after the IC, although she was SPV'd as one of the two people the JAYE alliance could bring in, and they immediately chose JFP instead of Cirie.

Then a scene in the water where she defended her effort in the IC to the group, followed immediately by her 2nd confessional, in which she admitted she didn't have a plan (strongly suggesting that neither group of 4 brought her into their group - WTF is with that? Why not get her?) and her quite rational, Sandra-esque statement: Anybody but me.

In all, a totally blah episode. Visibility a solid 2. Nothing really positive or negative.

Conclusion: UTR2

Winning chances: Diminished. There are two primary reasons why I don't say she's in the loser category: The initial confessional, always a good sign, and the fact that this is fan vs. fave (with JFP hogging the edit). It's clearly a different edit, so I will give her another episode before giving her the heave-ho.

Last Edited By: scepticA 02/11/08 12:58 AM. Edited 1 times.

AndreSurvivor

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Chet Watchdog - Episode 1 - UTR2: And this being on the generous end of Warrior's visibility chart-just because he had that memorable run-in with Kathy "Big Bird" Sleckman. I will add a bit more detail later on, but I just wanted to give my two cents. Mikey B. talked about him just in terms of his sexuality, as one of the characters in the tribe ("Queer Eye for the Straight Guy"), as did Kathy. Todd, last year, was never talked about it terms of gayness - Winning Chances: Very, very slim.

Last Edited By: AndreSurvivor 02/11/08 8:41 AM. Edited 1 times.

Kitty Pryde1

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Tracy Hughes-Wolf Watchdog Report! EDITION 1!

First thing to note about Tracy is the fact that, in the opening, every other member of her tribe (and the favorites too) got at least one solo face shot. We saw Tracy twice during Jeff's introduction, and both times, she seemed to be in the background compared to Mary, who was also shown in each of the two shots. Her first shot, she's even more in the background as I believe Mary and Erik both take up the right half of the frame. The second shot comes when Jeff makes his usual "Only ONE will remain" line, but again, Mary was in the foreground of that shot.

She had a rather meh intro shot too.

After the intro, the first shot she gets is, AGAIN, in the background to Mary. Now granted, all these shots have been mainly because they were seated beside one another on the boat, but couldn't the editors have at least thrown in a couple shots on her own?

She gets the second confessional from the fans tribe, and hers is the first one that really talks about Survivor, as opposed to Jason, who talked about wanting to survive out in the wild more than playing the game. She got a couple of smiling reaction shots early on when the twist was revealed and when one of the first favorites came out. She's also the first player to get a second confessional, mainly about hating Jonny Fairplay and wanting to kick his ass (foreshadowing, as he does go home after all). This could either be the start of a "never getting to do what she wanted" arc or just foreshadowing.

She got the high five with Kathy after finding the idol...didn't seem like TOO much of an important scene. Then she's one of the first to comment (in open forum as opposed to confessional) about the favorites, specifically Jonny Fairplay once again. She gets a THIRD confessional which basically is her telling the viewers (it's like she's speaking directly to Sucksters) about how she's a fan and how she didn't just decide she wanted to be on Survivor because it'd be fun. In the second half of the confessional, she talks about how they're out for blood on the favorites to prove themselves, which could have big implications in the event that a major theme is the fans having to prove themselves, or being a REAL fan of the show.

She got a simple line (off-screen) about how to build the shelter and clearing it out, making me assume she's one of the people taking the lead on the tribe. Of course, it could just have easily been someone else, given that it's hard to differentiate voices this early on. She got shown during the Kathy/Chet scene, before Kathy then put her foot in her mouth again by commenting on Tracy's implants (which Tracy then asks her how she's so sure that she has them to begin with. (Also, Natalie did have ONE sentence in that scene, but I still think she's invisible).

She goes to get treemail with Chet (a lot of scenes with her and Chet thus far, perhaps an alliance is in the making?) and she talks about how she's so hungry she'd eat rat guts. This is another instance of her talking about how much she wants to be out there that she'd be willing to do something most people would find disgusting, like eating rat guts (or sleeping in the same shelter as Fairplay). She read the treemail, but that's one of those "You have to show that stuff" scenes. We didn't get one for the favorites though, so maybe it has a little meaning to get her as much screentime as possible.

At the pre-challenge questioning, she got another smiling shot (with Chet in the background and Natalie to the side).

Overall, she got one of the most complex edits on the tribe, and was one of the least ignored.

Rating: MOR3
Winning Chances: Good

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Tracy Hughes-Wolf Watchdog Report: Episode 2!

First shot, she starts off in the background but then is shown saying something inaudible before her image is superimposed twice over Alexis' confessional (which I was gonna count as Tracy's confessional until they showed Alexis). She's shown again after Alexis mentions the flint, looking at the rest of the tribe making fire. She's shown talking to Chet while the men are completely unable to start a fire as well. She gets subtitles when saying that the men used up half the flint as well. She also got the focused reaction shot when Joel yelled at Kathy about wanting a good shelter. I think the interesting thing about this scene is that it sets up Tracy, Kathy, and Chet as the good guys for this episode, while Joel especially is the bad guy.

She and Kathy are shown talking about wanting to make a shelter, but Joel and Jaosn steal their spot and say they can't sleep in there. She comments on being done and frustrated before Jason makes his asshole confessional against the older players. She got a facial reaction during Jason's confessional which seemed to illustrate how he was basically being a jerk and she was upset by that. She then talks about how she's not going to purposefully start trouble with the younger players and comments on the tribal split before comforting Kathy.

She then seems to be the most vocal of the elder threesome about making their own shelter. After a brief scene with the favorites, she gets the first confessional about how her group built a great shelter. She's shown talking with Mikey a little dismissively, given the way her threesomewas treated earlier. She then gets a second confessional (I count it as two, given that the subject, although similar, is completely different from the first) about how the other seven wanted her help building a shelter of their own, which kinda sets her apart from Chet and Kathy as being more of a leader and more of the kind of person who can bridge the age gap.

Next she talks about being tired and dehydrated and needed water, with a shot of her looking exhausted, and once again, she's shown looking over Alexis (and Mikey this time) as they try to make fire. She gets subtitles as she essentially prays for the fire to work. Another thing of note is how whenever her threesome is discussed (like in Joel's confessional about keeping the tribe strong), she's always the first person listed.

After the immunity challenge, she's discussed as a secondary boot target, after Chet. She and Chet are then shown working while everyone else is shown discussing the vote. She gets the shot of her realizing that Kathy's returning, and she does the talking when Joel confronts her and Chet about booting Mary. She and Chet are both shown telling Kathy to keep her mouth shut, but Kathy says it in a much more serious and affirmative tone, while not being quite as negative about it as Chet. Then SHE gets the confessional about the game changing around and not trusting Joel, which is a view we're supposed to support given his actions in the episode. She talks about how he'll do anything to get the million dollars and how he wants it more than anyone.

At tribal council, she got an uneasy reaction shot when Jeff questioned Chet about his challenge suckitude. Jeff asked her about camp life and once again, she's the one who talks about the old vs. young conflict, but she also states that, once again, she's not going to cause trouble, and instead she's just going to do her best. When Alexis gives her voting confessional, Tracy is shown with Mary, while Chet isn't, despite him being the bigger boot target. She was also given the gong-sounding reaction shot when Mary got her third (unexpected) vote. She's also given a reaction shot to Mary's departure, along with boot target Chet, mastermind Joel, and stunned ally Mikey.

Rating: CP (The fact that she's the person who discusses the actual issues in the tribe, and the fact that she's shown mentioning feelings about Joel's trustworthiness and the age divide makes her CP)

Tone: P (She, Kathy, and Chet were the underdogs we're supposed to root for and we're supposed to like her because she wasn't rude or nasty or anything bad when confronted with the age divide, plus she was shown being a hard worker who was even willing to help out her enemies in building a shelter.)

Visibility: Weak 4 (She was very visible, which is surprising, given that Kathy was the exiled player and Chet was the boot target. SHE was the main focus in her alliance, and she would've been the biggest visibility had Kathy not gone to Exile, in my opinion)

Winning Chances: VERY good. Tracy's easily the best choice from the fans, in my opinion. She got a lot of focus in the last episode, despite the fans being mainly neglected, and she got a lot of focus in the episode, despite supposedly being the least memorable member of her alliance. Kathy is a massive distraction, and she's on Tracy's side, and Chet is a distraction as well, despite his low ratings.

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Tracy Hughes-Wolf Watchdog Report: Episode 3!

There's really not much I can say about Tracy from this past episode. She had a sentence during the storm where she was cuddled up with Chet and a sentence when she was petting Alexis' ratnest of a hairstyle. Other than that, there wasn't much to say about Tracy, other than that she looked like she aged twenty years overnight.

Rating: INV1 (No confessionals, no sentences, no screentime, Final Destination)

Winning Chances: While an INV would be a killer in other seasons, given the intense focus on the fans and her previously good edits in two episodes where she wasn't a focal point, I'd say she's not dead yet. She's not at the top of my list, but she's not dead yet.

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Tracy Hughes-Wolf Watchdog Report: Episode 4!

She's the first person shown in the "Previously On..." during the rainy scene from last episode. And it was her and Chet shown with Joel, rather than Joel's conversation with Kathy about voting out Mary.

Airai Scene 1:
She also gets the first shot during the fans' first scene, sitting with Kathy and eating. She asks the others who they think went home, and she says "I think it's Eliza or Yau-Man." which is later proven correct. The rest of the tribe seems stunned by this, except Chet.

Airai Scene 2:
She's focused on as she leads the tribe back to camp and is seen hanging stuff up at the shelter. During the immunity challenge, she's shown shaking her head, disappointed by the supposedly "strong" members of the tribe.

Airai Scene 3:
She's later shown with Kathy, in the shelter, basically telling her that the three of them HAVE to stick together or they're done for. She comments on how Chet needs to suck it up because he's not just hurting himself, but her and Kathy as well. When he says he's not doing alright, she's shown reassuring him. She then gets a confessional stating the fact that Chet could very easily go home at tribal council, and she then comments that if Chet's gone, she'll only survive one tribal council before she gets voted off. She once again is shown reassuring Chet and starts to show emotion over how upsetting the situation is for her. She says she's getting depressed because everyone is just going with the flow and no one is actually trying to play. She once again insists that the threesome sticks together and that they need to start making moves if they want to survive. She then gets a second (?) confessional about how she's not going to go down without a fight, because there's no reason to just give up.

She then initiates the conversation with Joel by asking him who he's voting for. She starts putting ideas in Joel's head about voting Mikey B out. Then she starts playing to his ego. She asks why he's letting Mikey control the game and reinforces the idea that Joel is just rolling over for Mikey. She mentions that he wanted Mikey gone earlier, and how she's angry with him because he's not following through on his plan. I'm not sure, but either her or Chet then made a cow sound for some reason, perhaps mistaking it for a sheep sound. She reinforces her opinions and talks about her intuition (which also comes into play with her guessing Yau-Man's ouster and basically foreshadowing Fairplay's ouster). She says that she can just tell that things are going to go bad for Joel based on her intuition. She then spells the plan out to Joel by pledging the loyalty of her group of three to him and saying he only needs one more vote. She continues pushing by explaining the numbers that if it's down to two of the elders, they no long make up a large enough percentage of the tribe to help him out. She restates this and then states that "with five, we can do something." When Chet says he thinks he's going home, she says it would mean Joel made a bad move.

Airai Tribal Council:
Tracy is shown helping Alexis out of the boat. Tracy gets a facial reaction to Joel's comment on weak players bringing the tribe down. She then responds to Mikey's comment about Chet being unable to compete by pointing out that the very people that he has considered weak for the past three episodes had absolutely no part in losing the two challenges from THIS episode. She gets another facial reaction when Joel comments about physical strength not being the most important thing in the world. When Jeff asks for more comments, she gets another facial reaction. She's shown shaking her head at the third Chet vote, possibly thinking that Joel made a bad move. Much like the last TC, Tracy gets a smirking reaction shot when Mikey B got voted out, and another when he was walking away.

Rating: CP (She talked about her emotions and how she was feeling and she was shown as actively trying to control her own fate. A CP is a definite must for this episode.)
Tone: P (I thought she was positive as being shown as wanting to stick around and being put into that underdog role without being shown as having a defeatist attitude, like Kathy and Chet.)
Visibility: 4 (She was definitely high in visibility, but because most of it happened in the last portion of the show, I can't, in good conscience, give her the 5 for this episode.)

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Tracy Hughes-Wolf Episode 5 Watchdog Report!

Previously on...

Tracy is shown as "challenging" Joel and she's shown making an argument that, although he tries to get a word in edgewise, he fails. She ends up telling him that Mikey is a bigger threat than Chet, and Joel is shown, agreeing with her.

Airai Scene 1

Tracy is shown saying goodnight to Jason, who's tending the fire. She gets a smiling shot during Jason's confessional.

She's then shown walking and talking with Chet along the lines of Cirie/Sandra's "as long as it's not me" strategy. She says "Well, another one bites the dust, and it's not one of us." When Chet says the three outcasts prevail, she avoids being cocky and thinking too far ahead by responding with "Just for now."

Pick 'Em/Reward Challenge

She's shown smiling at the Favorites as she walks into the challenge area. When she's picked, she doesn't get a shot greeting her new tribe. She DOES get a response to Jeff in some way, for some reason. Tracy gets a reaction shot to Ami's injury.

New Malakal Scene 1

There's a shot of Tracy holding hands with Chet. Amanda is shown rubbing Tracy's shoulder.

New Malakal Scene 2

Nothing but Chet/Erik/Joel.

New Malakal Scene 3

Nothing but Amanda catching the shark and Ozzy talking about it.

Immunity Challenge

She knocked down a tile.

New Malakal Scene 3

She's mentioned as the third boot in the pecking order by Joel, once again. She's shown walking off with Cirie and Chet, and she and Chet are shown turning the tides against Joel. She even gets subtitles when she says " So let's take his ass out."

Tribal Council

She once again uses challenge performance to show that Chet really didn't hurt their tribe as much as the alpha males want us to believe. She talks about how brute strength isn't going to win challenges if it's used improperly. She's also the only Joel vote to get her comments aired, stating that Joel called her weak one too many times. She's then shown, once again, smiling when Joel got that fourth vote and realized he'd been beaten. Important to note is the fact that it's her who seems to be getting the reaction shots to Joel's boot, not Chet.

Rating: MOR (I originally thought UTR, but she was complex in her answer at tribal council and her words as to why she voted for Joel, plus she was shown thinking ahead and not being cocky with her "Just for now." line)

Tone: Static Neutral (No real manipulation either way for her)

Visibility: 2 (Saved mainly by the tribal council question.)

Winning Chances: She's got connections to the story, she's got a story arc, she's got good ratings thus far. She's got distractions. She's the best winner pick from the original fans.

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Tracy Hughes-Wolf Watchdog Report: Week 6!

Recap:
Tracy is said to have been used by the favorites to blindside Joel, which I had forgotten. Her chances are certainly lessened from that.

Malakal Scene 1:
She gets a reaction shot to Erik's speech about voting Joel off, but that's it.

Malakal Scene 2:
Tracy is shown, talking to Chet about how it wasn't a bad decision to turn on their fellow fan because he was already planning on turning on them. She gets a confessional about how Joel's stupidity basically screwed her over, which seems to be a running theme in that she's the only fan who's actually playing with her head and working to turn things in her favor, and it's hurting her because if everyone else is stupid, it doesn't matter how smart you are. She then gives her underdog speech about how she didn't come this far to give up. She comments on how vicious the favorites are and is once again shown working her charm and charisma on Erik to keep him on their side. She once again is shown having to explain to Erik the numbers game, seemingly talking to him like a child.

She's then shown talking with Ami, who comments about having a pep talk with Tracy. This scene in particular strikes me as important, because it's essentially saying that Ami Cusack, the man-hating uber bitch of Vanuatu, is actively trying to help someone who is not in her alliance. Once again, I this this will come up if Ami is on the jury: she will vote for a fan. The scene definitely seems to go out of its way to show Tracy as the go-to girl for the fans, because we see Chet and Erik looking on, yet Tracy's the one Ami goes to.

Reward Challenge:
She gets mentioned by Jeff as working with Ozzy on their blockade. She's then shown pushing on a board to get it into place in comparison to Chet, standing around doing nothing.

Malakal Scene 3:
The favorites talk about how she's a builder, yet she didn't help them in the challenge, which is strange, given the times she was featured during the reward, where she was shown working hard. This scene is probably more negative for the faves than meaningful to Tracy, though. Cirie is also shown commenting on Tracy's age (incorrectly) which is more negativity for the faves once again.

Tracy is the fan shown when Ami talks about wanting to help them out, and those two are the ones having the conversation in the water about wanting Cirie gone. Tracy is once again shown as being perceptive by correctly assessing Cirie as a player, which Ami concurs with. Ami then gets the scene where she talks about "really trusting" Tracy almost to the point where they come across as BFFs.

Immunity Challenge:
Tracy is shown as asking where Jonathan is first (although her mouth was moving, I think it was Ami who asked, but it's hard to tell.) She was the one who walked on the poles, but that was about it for her in the challenge, although she did get a doisappointed reaction shot when Airai was just about finished with the challenge.

Malakal Scene 4:
Tracy is shown as disappointed over Chet basically quitting. She gets several reaction shots, and then she's even shown crying because Chet has basically screwed her over by asking to quit. Erik then gets a confessional where he mentions that Chet would be more honorable if he helped Tracy, Chet's long-time friend. Tracy and Erik are then shown discussing booting Ozzy to out the potential immunity idol. Tracy then gets a confessional about how she understands that Chet is hurt, but she needs him to vote with them in order to keep herself in the game. She then says that she won't put Chet's name down, no matter what.

Tracy then gets mentioned multiple times as Erik is trying to coerce Chet into voting for Ozzy, and as Ami talks about potentially voting with the fans, but she's not shown talking to Chet herself. She gets the line "Just think about it, okay." which I think definitely continues to show her as a very calculated player who doesn't let her emotions get the better of her, continuing off of last episode. Chet mentions her again as he said he always promised to help her out in a confessional.

Tribal Council:
She basically only got reaction shots to several of the comments that were made, but she didn't actually speak, which was new for her going to tribal council.

Rating: CP (We saw her thoughts and her feelings in terms of the game.)
Tone: Static Neutral (There wasn't really any tone for HER, as there was for the people around her that may have made her look somewhat positive, but I think it was more the negativity that made hr neutrality look positive.)
Visibility: 4 (She was definitely 4 material this episode.)

Winning Chances:
If a fan is going to win the game, which I think will happen, it's going to be Tracy. She's got the numbers, she's got the story, and she's pretty much the only fan than isn't either being portrayed as OTT or UTR/INV. The only bad things about her edit are the INV she's gotten and the ties to Chet and Kathy, which have been severed. Other than that, she's golden.

Last Edited By: Kitty Pryde1 03/15/08 12:11 AM. Edited 5 times.

island sun

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