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birdlady wrote:

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I thought it was really interesting that we heard Ozzy say he's not sure he can trust Amanda. Apparently, his primary ally is James, then Parvati, then Amanda. Sounds like the start of an arc to me...

We've already seen Cirie and Amanda they know they cannot take James and Ozzy to the final 3. Instead of playing Cirie, that could be the real final 3 deal.

The only one's who complained about Cirie picking Yau-Man to go were James and Ozzy.

For me, the season's story is the women outwitting the men and the men outwitting themselves.

Well, it's now the plucky band of misfits (Airai) who will prevail over the cocky, leaner (Malakal). Based on Survivor history, we all know which team will dominate at the end. One thing I strong believe -- a "favorite" will win -- period.

AIRAI:
Worse camp, but will unify quicker.

ALEXIS: She gets insider confessionals and incidental confessionals that could go to anyone, but I don't think she's the winner. She will be the last fan standing, whether that's final 3 or not.

ELIZA: She's crafty, but she is still scene as a physical liability. She is vulnerable. If Jonathan leaves and the fans stick together, James/Parvati will let her go. If she makes the merge, she will do well. She's certainly not naive.

JAMES: Strong, quiet, gullable. Loved how he didn't hug Alexis after being picked, but shot off a "Hey, baby". He's the exact person you want on tribe to use and discard right before or after the merge.

JASON: I still think JonBonJovi is a goober, but with the tribal switch maybe he'll get a fresh start. If he falls for the fake idol, he's the biggest idiot ever. So I will assume he won't. I don't think he's dumb, just a goober. I hope he proves me wrong. "Again, I just have to emphasize..."

JONATHAN: What a cruel twist of fate that the swap saves his pitard and then he gets injured. I hope he doesn't get evacuated next week, but if he does, they gave him a good sendoff. He did his best trash talk at the IC. He was desired on his tribe. He was shown giving Eliza the method to solving the puzzle. JP affectionately calls him Penner. (Guess he doesn't have Colby for a pin cushion anymore.) The producers love him and so do I. It does look like he's not forceably removed, but is given the option of leaving. Poor guy. He deserves better than to go out for an injury, but he deserve a long life to, so if he does go, it's understandable. This ain't no Jeff Wilson being the ultimate wimp.

KATHY: She's utterly invisible this past episode. But hey, no Exile Island. I'm sorry the Island of Misfit Toys alliance was split up. She's the most vulnerable of the fans on Airai if physical strength means anything -- and with both Mikey B and Joel gone in 16th and 17th place, the answer is clearly that it doesn't mean much.

NATALIE: Well, she's talking, but is so invisible so often, I just cannot imagine she wins or is a major part of the unfolding story. She will be able to stay u-t-r for awhile and it sounds like that suits her just fine.

PARVAIT: She's not just a bimbo, she's a bimbo with a plan. Note the energy between her and Amanda. THAT'S your real final 2 alliance, not her an James, who she will obviously dispense with when no longer necessarily, like any black widow. She plays a good social game and will stick around.

MALAKAL:
Doom, thy name is Malakal.

AMANDA: Well, she caught a shark. Sounded like it was dead or washed up on shore or "magically" appeared like Mike's pig. Taking a second look at the episode, she seemed most bothered by Parvati being on the other tribe. The real underlying alliance is not Ozzy-Amanda. It's Amanda-Parvati-Cirie.

AMI: Ami is not the shy and retiring type. Yet she is in the background of almost every episode. She makes whatever move she is going to make next week. It's ironic we might have an all-female final 5 and she's not in it.

CHET: Is he the Sanjaya of Survivor? He is proof positive that this gave has never been primarily about the things Debb thought it was about -- physical strength or physical toughness. He's still there. Somehow. Each week. Blessed are the weak, er, meek, for they shall inherit the game, I guess. Chet has lasted as long as he has for the same reason Kail did in BB's rigfest season. He's the PEFECT pawn. If he makes the merge, he's unstoppable. Who wouldn't want to be sitting next to him in the finals. He almost makes Katie look like a tribal asset. But give him credit. Joel and Mikey B are both gone and he's still there. He must be doing something right.

CIRIE: This is the Cirie show. We will find out why she won or why she lost. She calls the shots over strong men with a sense of entitlement to be the leader. She is still underestimated by all the potential leaders. Women cannot win. If they are strong and make power moves, their bitches. If they play under-the-radar, they are undeserving. I don't share these sentiments. I credit Tina as one of the great winners because of her gameplay while others diminish her abilities giving Colby all the credit. I don't think strong woman with independent mind makes for "bad edit". There's more to womanhood than madonna/whore/mother complexes. I would still bet she is the winner. She's making all the right moves for herself without StephaME's whining.

ERIK: (regarding "Ozzy" -- "I cannot compete with him" Minor story arc. Now that Joel is gone, he'll have to think for himself. That could be a blessing in disguise. His story even going back to the first episode wasn't about him and Joel, it was about him and Ozzy. Maybe Lief Garret can win a haircut for reward. I had a Farrah poster in the 70's with the same hairstyle. (My dad bought it for me thinking I'd like it -- I'd rather have had one of Parker Stevenson).

OZZY: Note -- the first person he discussed trusting was James, NOT Amanda. This is not as strong bond as Amber. He's not the braintrust. Even his genius move to make a new idol was something he copied from Yau-Man. He will be one of the many blindsides this season and he will not see it coming. No more than final 7 or 6 for him.

TRACY: She is my personal favorite of the fans. I like her and she played Joel really well last week. She knows the game. She knows her alliance. Kathy being on the other tribe is problematic, but not necessarily fatal since Joel went first. Aligning with Cirie is exactly the way to go. She is the underestimated fan this season.

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JOEL: Wow. Well, someone who shoots their best ammo in the first round is destined to lose. It never occurred to him that he could be outwitted. "You spot it, you've got it" is an old psychological adage. All the things he said about MikeyB turned out to be true about him. "He thinks he's in charge." He picked the wrong target, naturally. He thought Chet was his threat due to challenges. He didn't even think that someone else might target him -- especially someone strong. The "superpowers" holding their summit. It probably never even occurred to him the weak physically were the stronger socially. He's not the first strong guy to be outwitted and with 2 more seasons he won't be the last. Arrogance was his downfall. Ultimately, his inability to consider that the "weak" have minds of their own did him in. When he said to Erik, "This is a game for strong people", you knew it was over. Note, it is primarily a social game. One doesn't get to outwit or outplay if one doesn't get to outlast.